Understanding the spatial-temporal interaction effects of certain factors, or correlates, of crime is key to assessing and valuing criminogenic risk. Fortunately, decades of criminological research have identified a variety of independent variables that have been found to correlate significantly with particular crime outcomes. Risk Terrain Modeling was developed by Joel M. Caplan and Leslie W. Kennedy at Rutgers University School of Criminal Justice in recognition that a method was needed to simultaneously apply all of these empirical findings to practice.
Basically, Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) is an approach to risk assessment that standardizes risk factors to common geographic units. Separate map layers are then combined in a Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce “risk terrain” maps showing the presence, absence, or intensity of all risk factors at every location throughout the geography. RTM aids in strategic decision-making and tactical action by showing where conditions are ripe for hazardous events to occur in the future. To learn more, or to download the Risk Terrain Modeling Manual, visit http://www.riskterrainmodeling.com/.
In my own research, I found that risk terrain maps can show much more specific and focused priority areas and identify high-risk places that might have otherwise gone unnoticed. Importantly, RTM keeps the analyst in crime analysis, which is not a point-and-click occupation to be replaced by expensive hardware or software upgrades. Crime analysis requires thoughtful questions, theoretical grounding, and meaningful interpretations and communication of results by experts with technical know-how and insights from the field. RTM is a tool for this endeavor.
ReplyDeleteRTM provides a method that provides the context for major players in an area to make sense of the ways in which risk is distributed throughout an environment. It is easy to understand and provides a common language for residents, police, agencies, and policy makers to use in discussing their communities and the problems that they face.
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